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Stoke City vs. Swansea: Preview & Prediction

By Jeff Brantley

STOKE ON TRENT, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 15: Jacob Brown of Stoke City is challenged by Jack Rudoni of Huddersfield Town during the Sky Bet Championship between Stoke City and Huddersfield Town at Bet365 Stadium on February 15, 2023 in Stoke on Trent, England. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images)
STOKE ON TRENT, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 15: Jacob Brown of Stoke City is challenged by Jack Rudoni of Huddersfield Town during the Sky Bet Championship between Stoke City and Huddersfield Town at Bet365 Stadium on February 15, 2023 in Stoke on Trent, England. (Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images) /
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After dropping all three points this past weekend against Blackpool, The Potters find themselves sitting at 19th on the table still with 37 points — That puts Stoke City just six points from the bottom of the table as Huddersfield, Blackpool, and Wigan Athletic all sit at 31 points in the relegation zone.

At the same time however, Stoke City are just a win on Tuesday away from moving within two points of a handful of teams, who sit around 12th on the table — One of those teams being Swansea who Stoke City travel to play midweek this week.

Swansea come into Tuesday’s match at 12th on the table with 42 points — Swansea have managed to score a 4th best goals amount of goals this season with 45. But the club has also managed to concede 47 goals this season, which is tied for second worst in the Championship.

Stoke City vs. Swansea: Prediction

The Potters are in the midst of a very busy schedule right now. The club after Tuesday will have played four games in 10 days. And then after Saturday against Millwall, The Potters will have played five games in fourteen days.

Which makes every point in this stretch that much more important and even tougher — As for Swansea on Tuesday, Stoke City should have a chance to score goals. Tuesday’s match could just come down to can The Potters hold defensively against Swansea.

As mentioned above Swansea have scored a lot of goals this season with 45. Data analytics further back up these numbers as per FBref, Swansea have the 4th best xG (expected goals) number as well in the league at 42.5.

With those kinds of numbers it’s clear that The Potters will have their hands full all match with Swansea’s attack. So much so that Stoke City should be expected to concede a goal or two on Tuesday. That’s why Stoke City’s chance at points might come down to their ability to find the back of the net themselves.

But even though Swansea have conceded 47 goals, the data analytics paint a different defensive picture for the team. Also per FBref, Swansea have accrued a 33.4 xGA (expected goals against) this season.

33.4 xGA isn’t the best in the league, but it is much better than the 47 goals they’ve actually conceded. In fact, 33.4 xGA is 7th best in the Championship.

So what will give on Tuesday? Swansea’s real-life conceded goals number or what the data analytics says about their team out of possession? Given Stoke City’s luck this season and coming off of a loss, we’ll say Swansea shows some defensive lapses at times. But also holds enough to keep Stoke City from grabbing points.

Final prediction: Swansea win 2-1.