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Stoke City vs. Norwich City: Preview & Prediction

By Jeff Brantley

NORWICH, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 13: A view of a goal and netting during the Sky Bet Championship match between Norwich City and Stoke City at Carrow Road on February 13, 2021 in Norwich, England. Sporting stadiums around the UK remain under strict restrictions due to the Coronavirus Pandemic as Government social distancing laws prohibit fans inside venues resulting in games being played behind closed doors. (Photo by Stephen Pond/Getty Images)
NORWICH, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 13: A view of a goal and netting during the Sky Bet Championship match between Norwich City and Stoke City at Carrow Road on February 13, 2021 in Norwich, England. Sporting stadiums around the UK remain under strict restrictions due to the Coronavirus Pandemic as Government social distancing laws prohibit fans inside venues resulting in games being played behind closed doors. (Photo by Stephen Pond/Getty Images) /
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As Stoke City manager Alex Neil said in his presser on Friday, “The Championship’s a marathon, it’s not a sprint.” No truer words can be spoken as The Potters continue that marathon this weekend against Norwich City at Carrow Road.

Stoke City head into Saturday’s road match sitting at 17th on the table with 19 points. Along with looking to improve their position on the table, Stoke City will also be looking to snap a bad stretch of recent results. Over their last two matches, Stoke City have taken zero points out of a possible six points.

Another storyline going into Saturday’s match against Norwich City is Alex Neil returning to take on another one of his former clubs. Neil who was with The Canaries from 2015-2017, helped manage Norwich to Premier League Promotion in his first season there in 2015.

Norwich, as of right now, remain within earshot of promotion playoffs as the club comes in at 7th on the table with 25 points. The Canaries have been in bad form as of late though, as Norwich City have lost four and drawn one match in their last five.

How will Stoke City line up against Norwich City?

Stoke City Predicted Formation: 5-2-1-2

Alex Neil will most likely look to play more defensively on Saturday and then look to counterattack given Norwich’s attacking prowess. With that, Neil will probably choose a more defensive formation by playing with a back-five.

Of course, that back five can switch into more of a 3-5-2 or even a 3-4-3 quickly when in possession and looking to attack. But given Norwich’s high possession percentage, Stoke City will mostly sink in defensively with a back five in a 5-2-1-2.

A straight 5-3-2 isn’t out of the question as well on Saturday for Stoke City, as an extra defensive midfielder would give Stoke even more defensive stability. But Alex Neil found some success earlier this season against a similar side in Burnley, by keeping three forwards higher up the pitch in a 5-2-1-2.

Starting XI Prediction: Bursik – Fosu – Fox – Flint – Jagielka – Wilmot – Baker – Smallbone – Thompson – Delap – Campbell

Is Dujon Sterling healthy enough to start on Saturday? That’ll be a big topic to watch when Stoke’s starting XI comes out Saturday. If he is, he’ll of course start at right wing-back. If not, Neil will be forced into a tough decision. Does he play a Harry Clarke who provides more in attack or go with a more defensively stable Ben Wilmot?

For now we’ll say he goes with the more defensively stable Wilmot. Other questions will be: Is Thompson fully ready to return to the team’s starting lineup and is it time for Aden Flint to make his return from being essentially benched?

If Thompson is healthy enough, he has to start once again. Since the international break, Stoke City have missed Thompson dearly. Although Josh Laurent has filled in admirably, Thompson’s on and off-ball skills have been something Stoke have missed in their defensive midfield.

As for Flint, this should be a stretch of matches that he’s reinserted into the team’s starting XI. Flint, who was benched after the club’s Watford loss, possesses the size Stoke City could use to shake up their lineup a bit. With Flint’s size, Stoke City can provide more of a threat again on set pieces and defending opposing crosses into the box.

Stoke City vs. Norwich City Prediction:

This is a difficult match to predict. Stoke City who hit the road in bad form, now take on a club in equally, if not worse form. So something has to give, but what is it?

Here’s what we know for sure heading into the match Saturday – Norwich City will control the majority of the possession between the two teams. Norwich City ranks third in the Championship with 58.5% possession on average. Now that doesn’t mean Norwich City will necessarily win the match, but it does set the tone of the match that Stoke City will have to do the most with the possession they do get.

In order to do the most with that said possession, Stoke City will have to count on their counterattack to score goals. The best way to do that is to get behind the ball, then let your opponent possess the ball, and finally wait for a bad pass or a heavy touch to pounce on them with a counterattack.

That should be Stoke City’s strategy when it comes to attacking on Saturday. Then on the defensive side of things, Stoke City will have to make sure they’re locked in at all times and stay tight and switched on defensively.

Norwich have been in bad form as of late, but they still hold a lot of threats in their attack. On the season Norwich are second in the Championship with 22.1 xG (expected goals). Two of the biggest reasons they are is because of the Finnish veteran Teemu Pukki and the young American Joshua Sargent.

Although Pukki is older, he still brings a pedigree to each match that only a seasoned number 9 can have. And Josh Sargent has enjoyed a hot start to the season as he’s tied for first in the league with eight goals scored.

Stoke City will have to make sure they don’t lose track of either player on the pitch and that one-on-one they stay strong with their defending. If Stoke City do that, they could give themselves a chance to score a goal or two and proverbially steal all three points or a point from The Canaries.

Final Prediction:

Stoke City draw 0-0 or 1-1. A defensive minded/counter attacking style of a match actually suits Stoke City better than what they’ve had to do in recent matches. Because of that, they stay in the match and grab at least a point.